Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.501364 2.664598 2.838478 3.038420 3.263167 3.509404 3.801544
2025-03-09 2.249795 2.468881 2.714584 3.013737 3.372632 3.795442 4.340842
2025-03-16 2.097725 2.348327 2.639433 3.008543 3.473249 4.052509 4.853099
2025-03-23 2.004826 2.280955 2.611141 3.044456 3.613571 4.360501 5.463603
2025-03-30 1.895159 2.181442 2.531060 3.001778 3.640358 4.513363 5.875463
2025-04-06 1.801698 2.093883 2.457018 2.956657 3.653741 4.642005 6.264438
2025-04-13 1.707620 1.999074 2.366188 2.879872 3.612598 4.682398 6.515152
2025-04-20 1.666758 1.969206 2.356682 2.910698 3.724176 4.959652 7.205578
2025-04-27 1.639324 1.954465 2.365097 2.965236 3.873302 5.311749 8.105871
2025-05-04 1.612928 1.939100 2.370814 3.014901 4.017972 5.674505 9.121678
2025-05-11 1.563939 1.890843 2.328162 2.989948 4.041646 5.831369 9.753686
2025-05-18 1.519110 1.846136 2.287919 2.965330 4.062536 5.984270 10.419053
2025-05-25 1.476067 1.802890 2.248661 2.941177 4.084510 6.147119 11.176417
2025-06-01 1.436709 1.763203 2.212609 2.919577 4.108676 6.317736 12.019464
2025-06-08 1.405086 1.732939 2.188529 2.914731 4.160634 6.550417 13.131157
2025-06-15 1.386639 1.720293 2.189251 2.948782 4.284013 6.950529 14.954304
2025-06-22 1.348952 1.678947 2.145677 2.908319 4.267535 7.045675 15.830722
2025-06-29 1.312836 1.638696 2.102162 2.865518 4.243025 7.119373 16.679373
2025-07-06 1.270700 1.588628 2.042217 2.792628 4.156262 7.038433 16.900750
2025-07-13 1.257220 1.579434 2.043531 2.821898 4.267434 7.442680 19.409342
2025-07-20 1.250014 1.578962 2.057860 2.873658 4.427340 8.000551 23.255232
2025-07-27 1.241879 1.576751 2.069235 2.920764 4.582721 8.585568 28.198378
2025-08-03 1.217601 1.549933 2.041196 2.897100 4.588920 8.764763 30.908940